Monthly Decision Maker Panel data - April 2026

The April 2026 DMP survey was conducted between 2-17 April 2026 and received 2,030 responses.

Firms reported that their realised annual own-price growth was 3.7% in the three months to April, unchanged from the three months to March. Note that the DMP covers own prices from firms across the whole economy, not just consumer-facing firms.

Year-ahead own-price inflation was expected to be 3.8% in the three months to April, 0.3 percentage points higher than firms reported in the three months to March. The single-month data show a sharper increase from 3.4% to 4.4% between February and April, pointing to firms adjusting their expectations as a result of the recent increases in energy prices.

Expectations for year-ahead CPI inflation rose to 3.5% in the three months to April, up from 3.1% in the three months to March. The corresponding measure in the single month data rose from 3.0% to 4.0% between February and April . Three year-ahead CPI inflation expectations were 2.8% in the three months to April, up 0.1 percentage points relative to the three months to March. The single month data was unchanged from March and remained 0.1 percentage points higher than in February. 

Firms reported that annual wage growth was 4.3% in the three months to April, unchanged from the three months to March.  Expected year-ahead wage growth fell slightly, from 3.5% in the three months to March to 3.4% in the three months to April. 

Firms reported that realised annual employment growth was -0.4% in the three months to April, down from -0.3% in the three months to March. Expectations for employment growth over the next year also weakened slightly, falling by 0.1 percentage points to 0.0% in the three months to April.

The April survey asked firms how they expect the recent energy shock to affect their business over the next 12 months. Higher prices and lower profit margins were the most common forms of adjustment.  64% of firms expected to increase their prices (with 4% lowering prices). 68% expected their profit margins to be lower (with 6% expecting higher margins).  The picture was more mixed on wages, with 26% expecting wages to be higher and 16% expecting them to be lower. Sales and employment are also expected to be lower than they would have been, on average.